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disorder Ashton wants to lead the West's response to the revolutions in the Arab world

What will happen to the Arab world's political landscape? They are not too distant horizons. The effect Domino is so powerful that many leaders have been quick to make political concessions, including the resignations of cabinet in the middle in Jordan or Palestine and constitutional reform in Algeria. So far the European response navigates between the warmth and outstretched hand. Egypt is the most important event has been an ally and to consolidating security in the region, despite the fact that Mubarak had not been imposed by the West. The calm before it was frustrating, but aseptic. There is a history of riots had not led to democracy, but in terrible tyranny. But any scenario involves unknown risks revolt, to those who do not simply wait for arms and fingers crossed.

Ashton Different releases have affected while respecting fundamental human rights, without going much further. However, the upcoming week promises to Ashton, who has spent days doing his best to lead the West's response to successive revolutions in the Arab world. Not only Ashton, also Van Rompuy is trying to forge a joint response by the 27 Member States. Once over that hurdle fundamental unit response, the UK goes further, and has organized this week a top-level conference in Brussels (which tell here), with representatives from U.S., Japan and the World Bank. He wants the European Union lead the West's response.

In what many interpreted as a sign of low self-esteem politics, the High Representative believes that only a coordinated global response and make a dent, considernado the high risks associated with each state or institution acting on his own.

The most curious fact is that is expected to attend a representative of the Ministries of AA. EE. Egyptian. Strange, considering that the bulk of the discussion will focus on Tunisia Egyptian, but "spontaneous" riots have been reproduced and extended to Algeria, Jordan, Libya, Yemen and Bahrain. Regarding the latter, the EU itself has verbally protested forcefully against military attack ordered by the absolutist monarchy.

recovers Is the traditional model of democratization in the international system? The model is based on the five elements we know: electoral reform, civil society, independent judiciary, freedom of press, and combating corruption. Laudable, without ceasing to be dangerous and illusory.

cooperative trend is not new. Union Europe bears a long tradition of care in disadvantaged regions, including agreements in the field of the Union for the Mediterranean, with some of the states affected by these revolutions unexpected. Has always tried to export the model of European cohesion policy, and Ashton has a strategy in that line. You want to immediately close Tunisia, which aims to close a trade liberalization agreement, also supported by the European Investment Bank, wanting to inject funds into that country, under two conditions: a financing agreement with the IMF and significant correction in the lopsided balance of payments Tunisia.

This position intended to put pressure on opposition political groups, which are ideological and confusing conglomerate, in addition to, in some cases reluctant to any Western collaboration involving privatization, which is also related to the presence of corruption.

To many European observers claim is ridiculous and totally unrealistic. Chaotic nations speak of overcoming a state of repression and traveling to the politically unknown. West can not even predict the magnitude of what is happening in the southern Mediterranean basin, and try to export the European model of cohesion seems to us more than naive.

However, the EU will promote the line of investment in exchange for democratizing reforms. The timing issue is not so much impact on human rights or to offer a few million euros in assistance or help, but to structure political agreements on progressive goals. Figures have been published, the EU will inject in Tunisia 258 million euros until 2013, more than 17 million immediately. Pay attention to the unlikely and stupid reaction Tunisian Minister of Industry, who asked for clarification if it is billions or millions. No comments.

Meanwhile, Italy calls for urgent help to tackle the massive wave of Tunisians the island of Lampedusa. Frontex has serious problems to the point that the European border control is ineffective. Border control remains under the control of the Member States, for reasons too complex to air in a couple of lines.

Returning to the argument. No one is unclear to what extent is Europe's moral obligation to provide financial assistance if there is no guarantee of democratization and liberalization. But truth is that Arab countries are potential commercial and strategic allies. So is that they are within the scope of the Neighbourhood Policy of the Union, with serious consequences and multiple variables.

prescriptive What is a joint rapid response and invite dialogue among various factions and parties in each country "scrambled." That stance is the only one that will keep taking the reins who is adverse to the European Union. Maybe this week will reach an ambitious and intelligent, that prevents any of those nations to become decidedly hostile to the West. Will need to find the balance between democracy and stability, probably the second priority.